28/08/2008
Over the last 18 months, the security implications of climate change have received increasing attention.
The United Nations estimates that all but one of its emergency appeals for humanitarian aid in 2007 was climate related. In September 2007, at the instigation of the United Kingdom, the UN Security Council held its first debate on climate change and its implications for international security. A report from senior retired U.S. military generals, entitled National Security and the Implications of Climate Change, outlined how climate change was a direct threat to U.S. national security. In March of this year, Javier Solana, the European Union's High Representative, presented a landmark report on the security implications of climate change in Europe.
Climate change can exacerbate existing trends, tensions and instability. The central challenge is that climate change threatens to overburden states and regions, which are already fragile and conflict prone. It is critical to recognize that the risks are not just of a humanitarian nature; they also include political and security risks that directly affect national interests.
Moreover, in line with the concept of human security, it is clear that many issues related to the impact of climate change on national security are interlinked, requiring comprehensive policy responses.
Areas of increased security risks involve conflict over resources, environmentally induced migration and pressure on international governance, to name a few.
Climate change will alter rainfall patterns and will further reduce available fresh water by an estimated 20 to 30 per cent in some areas of the world. Reduction of arable land, widespread shortage of water and diminishing food and fish stocks will increase flooding and prolong droughts, which are already starting to appear. A drop in agricultural productivity will lead to or worsen food-and-security in the least developed countries and to an unsustainable increase in food prices across the board.
Water shortage in particular has the potential to cause civil unrest leading to significant economic losses, even in robust economies. The overall impact is that climate change will fuel existing conflicts over Canadian resources, especially if access to those resources is politicized.
Environmentally induced migration could occur where segments of populations that already suffer from poor health conditions, social exclusion or unemployment are rendered more vulnerable to the effects of climate change, potentially triggering migration within and between nations.
According to the UN, millions of "environmental" migrants could appear by 2020, with climate change as one of the major drivers of this phenomenon. Europe, for example, will expect a substantial increase in migratory pressure.
With the rise of environmentally-induced conflicts, and the associated security risks, what role should the UN play in managing these ensuing problems?
As a start, the relevant organizations and programs under the auspices of the UN should be better co-ordinated and significantly enhanced in the interests of prevention.
This could be done by upgrading the UN Environment Program, strengthening UN development capabilities, and finally, developing the role and task of the UN Security Council to tackle climate change.
Regional impacts of climate change and their security implications are mostly felt in places like Africa. Reductions in soil moisture and further loss of arable land may be the most significant of the projected impacts of climate change in Africa.
At the same time, extreme weather events are likely to increase. These expected changes will have a negative impact on the supplies of potable water and food production in key areas. This will add significantly to existing tensions and can facilitate weakened governance, massive human migrations, economic collapses and potential conflicts.
There is no question that food shortages due to global warming will trigger conflicts in many parts of the world. This should be handled by promoting the development and wide use of crop varieties that are less vulnerable to abnormal weather patterns.
The rapid melting of the polar ice caps, in particular the Arctic, is opening up new waterways and international trade routes. In addition, the increased accessibility of the enormous hydrocarbon resources in the Arctic region is changing the geo-strategic dynamics of the region, with potential consequences for international stability and security interests.
The resulting new strategic interests are illustrated by the recent planting of the Russian flag under the North Pole. There is an increasing need to address the growing debate over territorial claims and access to new trade routes by different countries which potentially challenges countries' abilities to effectively secure their trade and resource interests in the region and may put pressure on relations with key partners.
Climate change, national security and energy dependence are a related set of global challenges and should be on the agenda of all countries as we move forward to tackle these critical issues.
Bryon Wilfert is the Member of Parliament for Richmond Hill and the Official Opposition critic for national defence. In the former Liberal government he served as parliamentary secretary to then-environment minister Stéphane Dion.
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